Public director of Globalization Problem Institute
GENERAL THEORY OF GLOBALIZATION
"World for Russia:
the way we need it and what we can do with it"
(Analytical report open part in brief)
I. Information technologies expansion 3
1.1. Information technologies: money recedes into the background 3
On difference significance in the technological time speed
1.2. New resources for new technologies 9
1.3. Old technologies "depreciation" 10
II. Several consequences of markets globalization 12
2.1. Competition globalization - monopolies globalization 12
2.2. "Euro": suppression of threat and destructive egoism 13
!2.3. Financial competition 14
Technological process slowdown
III. Global regulation for global competition 17
3.1. What will unite the world into "Economic UNO"? 17
3.2. New generation of TNC "the wind of Gods" 18
3.3. Value of global regulation 18
About the author in brief
Delyagin, Mikhail Gennadjevich, born in 1968, Doctor of Economics.
From 1990 till 1993 - expert of the B. Eltsyn Group of Experts, since 1994 - leading analyst of the President of Russia Analytic Department, since 1996 - referent of the President of Russia assistant. Since March 1997 - advisor of the vice-prime-minister - Minister of Internals, since June 1997 - advisor of the first vice-prime-minister Mr. B. Nemtsov. On his leaving the government one day prior to August 17th, he established a Globalization Problem Institute. In the beginning of October 1998 after new government under Mr. Primakov had started its work, he was restored at the public service.
He has more than 300 publications (including in the USA, Germany, France, China, India, Egypt etc.), 4 monographs, with the latest - "Economy of non-payments" was republished for three times since 1996 till 1997.
1. Information technologies development has brought to:
" "meta-technologies" creation, application of which makes it impossible for the party which applies such technologies to compete with the developers of these technologies;
" reorientation of technologies from necessary material objects formation to necessary type of conscious and culture formation (transformation from high-tech to high-hume);
" acceleration of information technologies development to such extent that "short", theoretical investments are productive for the most advanced information technologies;
" approximate depreciation of traditional technologies;
" Information society creation in which money plays second role as compared with technologies.
2. Major humanity technological development prospects:
" Exacerbation and compelling character acquisition by divultion between developed and backward countries, and also between developed countries and creating new technologies and the rest developed countries;
" Insulation of people engaged in information technologies into internal "information community", its concentration in the territory of the developed countries; slow concentration of the "information community" of the world and together with it concentration of the world progress in the "most developed" countries;
" progress termination beyond the developed countries; social and financial degradation of the developing countries;
" Possible abrupt slowdown of the progress in the result of global financial crises and destructive competition between the USA and European Currency Union.
3. Global monopolies formation is being performed:
" At global markets of separate financial instruments;
" In the course of these markets integration process (reduction of the "transformation value" among them to negligible level) as information technologies advance - in the form of the united global monopoly.
These processes will demand in the nearest future creation of the overnational regulation mechanism for global monopolies, which will be of more malaise character.
The whole development of the humanity including in the field of economics is determined nowadays and will be determined in the nearest decade by progress to the new qualitative level with two fundamental processes simultaneously: new technologies development, information technologies primarily, and based on it quick competition globalization, primarily in the financial markets.
!lvl0I. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES EXPANSION
1.1. Information technologies: money recedes into the background
Technological development has brought in the middle nineties to actual creation by the most advanced part of the humanity that very "information community" which has been widely discussed for the last decades and so that no one takes the matter seriously.
Realities of its functioning, casual connections and competitive potential by the reason of intellectual and technological gap can be hardly perceivable by those who are beyond of that process.
The most important way of showing this qualitative technological breakthrough which has lead to creation of the information society and at the same time one of its major parts is creation and quick distribution of the so-called "meta-technologies".
Specifics of this type of technologies lies in that that the fact of thier implementation makes for the party which uses such technologies principially impossible to compete with the developer of these technologies in a serious level. This may be called a price for access to the effectiveness of a higher level which is provided by such technologies and which might be found in dealer and licensed systems. Modern advanced technologies in direct or indirect form place the user in the position of a licensee.
The most telling examples of meta-technologies are:
" Network computer: distribution of its memory in the net provides the developer with the whole information of the user and allows the developer to interfere into activity of the latter or even to control it (external control principle of the plugged in computer has bee already realized);
" Modern communication technologies which allow to wiretap all telephone messages all over the world; in the nearest future computer processing of the whole volume of these messages and also wiretap of all messages in the Internet will be possible;
" Different organization technologies; their main subgroups:
Control technologies, including corporation activity organization: oriented to culture and value system of the country the developer, such technologies reduce competitiveness of the corporations which represent other cultures; we should also note that in general distribution within a society of a foreign types of culture which do not integrate with the culture of the society and as the result the culture which not only enriches it but remains detached from it, makescompetitiveness of this society weaker;
Formation of the mass conscious technology: permanent adaptation of the latter to the forms of influence arouses objective necessity in permanent renovation of the forms; without renovated technologies which at first appear in the leading country and then are distributed in other countries mass conscious of the society using technologies which influence it will get out