6. Ethnic/National Intolerance Dynamics
Results of the second round of research undertaken in May 1994 make it possible to determine and describe certain trends in the development of the ethnic/national tolerance of Ukraine's population. In this connection the indicators of general and specific tolerance of Ukrainians and ethnic Russians towards each other are important.
The level of general national/ethnic tolerance can be considered, within the context of prospects for the development of society, as an indicator of the degree of readiness of the population's mass consciousness to open up and tocooperate with the world community on the basis of generally recognized democratic principles.
At the same time, indicators of attitudes of ethnic Russians and Ukrainians towards each other are indicators of internal sociopolitical processes, the development of which can consolidate or jeopardize civil peace and accord in Ukraine. Moreover, attitudes towards ethnic Russians largely lect the population's attitudes towards relations with Russia. Within the general political context, one cannot disregard the fact that peace in Eastern Europe will be largely determined by the course of development of relationships between Ukraine and Russia. An aggravation of the problems of the Crimea and the Black Sea Fleet, which have become major objects of confrontation between Ukraine and Russia, evokes serious concern not only among the responsible politicians of the two sides but also from the world community as a whole. The population's support of various political actions, of both a compromising and confrontational nature, is at present an essential factor in political decisionmaking. In this connection, monitoring social moods and feelings, particularly those lected in mutual ethnic tolerance, enables one to predict to a certain extent the population's reactions to changes in Ukrainian policy visavis Russia.
Table 5 shows the dynamics of levels of general national/ethnic tolerance with respect to changes which occurred in the mass consciousness of the population in various regions of Ukraine in the past two years of the new state's making.
Regional peculiarities of the general dynamics of national/ethnic intolerance
Regions Index of overall national intolerance (on a scale from 1-7)
Kiev 4.01 4.49
the western region 4.31 4.33
the central region 4.87 4.25**
the eastern region 4.71 4.64
the southern region 4.71 4.68
the Crimea 4.63 4.13*
Ukraine 4.63 4.44**
First of all, it should be noted that a certain drop occurred in the average level of general national/ethnic intolerance of the population of Ukraine as a whole. On the one hand, the level remains shifted to the negative side of the tolerance scale (whereby, as has been mentioned, the mark of four points divides the positive and negative sides of the scale). On the other hand, however, there is a statistically significant movement toward a greater general national/ethnic tolerance which testifies to a positive if slow trend in the evolution of the mass consciousness.
Important changes in the level of general national/ethnic tolerance took place in the minds of people in Central Ukraine. The higher level of general national tolerance in this region shows that this formerly politically indifferent area with prevailing traditionalistarchaic orientations (where local interests supersede all other) is beginning to become rather actively involved in the political life of the country and, in some cases, to substantially influence the course of political developments. For example, the changes in the mass consciousness of the region's population found their lection in the outcomes of the 1994 presidential elections. In the past. Central Ukraine had been fairly homogeneous in its political orientations (an assertion confirmed both by various data of public opinion polls and erendum results), thus enabling the integration of a number of oblasts into a single region. However, the outcomes of the 1994 presidential elections allow one to conclude that the population became differentiated in this region, where the choice between Leonid Kravchuk (the expresident) and Leonid Kuchma (the incumbent president) divided the population, as the voting confirmed, into Left Bank and Right Bank central subregions (with certain western Ukrainian and eastern Ukrainian orientations).
A rise of the national intolerance index in Kiev is not statistically significant due to the small number of those polled (90 people) and the variability in individual assessments.
As far as the dynamics of tolerance of Ukraine's population towards various nationalities are concerned (Table 6), one can see that changes in opposite directions took place. Set against a background of a rather stable level of intolerance towards representatives of developed Western countries (Americans and Germans - here the changes are statistically insignificant), the general trends seems to be that intolerance towards ethnic groups living in Ukraine (Crimean Tatars, gypsies, Jews) decreased, while it rose with respect to Eastern European neighbours (Poles and Hungarians).
Dynamics of tolerance of Ukraine 's population towards various nationalities
Nationalities Index of national intolerance (on a scale 1-7)
N = 1752 May 1994
N= 1807 Change in index
Ukrainians 1.55 1.83 +0.28**
Russians 2.45 2.25 -0.20**
Belarussians 2.85 2.70 -0.15*
Jews 4.18 3.82 -0.36**
Americans 4.31 4.42 +0.11
Poles 3.77 4.45 +0.68**
Germans 4.43 4.48 +0.05
Crimean Tatars 5.09 4.55 -0.54**
Slovaks - 4.55
Hungarians 4.24 4.59 +0.35**
Moldavians - 4.59
Romanians 4.56 4.69 +0.13*
Serbians - 4.77 -
Georgians 5.26 4.86 -0.40**
Turks - 4.91
Gypsies 5.55 5.09 -0.46**
(* p < 0.05; **< 0.01)
The rise in tolerance towards Georgians can be primarily explained by the fact that certain political forces in Ukraine actively supported the Georgian side in the GeorgianAbkhazian conflict (more specifically, many Ukraine's citizens went on relief missions to Georgia in 1993-1994). Due to a rather wide proGeorgian propaganda campaign on the Ukrainian TV Channel UTAR and the involvement of a part of Ukraine's population in the events in Georgia (family and friendly ties and contacts with people who supported the Georgian side), an increase in tolerance of Georgians occurred.
7. Dynamics of Relationships between Ukrainians and Ethnic Russians
A rising national tolerance towards ethnic Russians and a declining tolerance